I proceed to seek out Statcast’s bat monitoring information fascinating. I additionally proceed to seek out it overwhelming. Hitting is so complicated that I can’t fairly think about boiling it right down to only a few numbers. Even once I have a look at among the extra complicated shows of bat monitoring, like squared-up charge, I typically can’t fairly perceive what it means.
I’ll offer you an instance: once I regarded into Manny Machado’s early-season struggles final week, I discovered that he was squaring the ball up extra continuously when he hit grounders than when he put the ball within the air. That sounds unhealthy to me – exhausting grounders don’t actually pay the payments. However I didn’t have a lot to match it to, except for league averages for these charges. And I didn’t have context for what shapes of squared-up charge work for numerous completely different profitable batters.
What’s an analyst to do? If you happen to’re like me in 2024, there’s one most popular possibility: ask my pleasant neighborhood giant language mannequin to assist me create a visible. I had an thought of what I wished to do. Primarily, I wished to create a chart that confirmed how a given hitter’s squared-up charge diverse by launch angle. There’s a distinction between squaring the ball up like Luis Arraez – line drives into the hole all day – and doing it like Machado. I hoped {that a} visible illustration would make that a bit clearer.
First issues first: I downloaded each ball in play from this 12 months the place Statcast recorded a bat pace, pitch pace, launch angle, and exit velocity. Then I manually calculated whether or not every batted ball was squared up. As a refresher, a batted ball is squared up if the ball travels at 80% of its most theoretical velocity, as measured by a proxy system: 1.23 * bat pace + 0.23 * pitch pace at house plate, which is roughly 92% of pitch pace at launch. If you happen to’re interested by following together with me at house, you will discover that information right here. If not, bear with me, as a result of I’d like to indicate you some photos I made.
From there, Gemini (my LLM of selection, although I’m positive others would find yourself in roughly the identical place) and I set to work. We calculated the squared-up charge of every hitter at every angle. I needed to make a number of selections right here about combination information. I made a decision to bulk up each angle by on the lookout for balls hit inside 10 levels of it both means, then threw out each bucket that didn’t have a minimum of 20 information factors after doing that bulking up. There’s some overlapping information this fashion, however pattern sizes are sufficiently small, and I believe that hitter intent is broad sufficient, that for those who’re questioning how continuously somebody squares up a batted ball at 15 levels, 5 levels and 25 levels are each helpful inputs.
These are the components that I got here up with, however I wasn’t fairly positive flip that idea right into a program that would make graphs out of my thought. However that’s nothing I couldn’t resolve after a number of hours of arising with concepts, translating them into Python code utilizing generative AI, discovering issues with the code, arising with new concepts to unravel these issues, translating these new concepts into new code, discovering new issues… you get the thought.
Primarily, I wished a graph of how good Machado is at squaring up the ball relying on whether or not he’s hitting it down, flat, or up. Nice information. I acquired precisely that graph:
He’s squaring up a ton of his contact on the bottom, similar to we knew. He’s getting probably the most out of his bat pace far much less continuously on the juicy launch angles within the 20 diploma vary. That doesn’t sound very similar to Arraez, the bat management god, in any respect. However what does Arraez’s graph seem like? It appears to be like like what you’d count on:
As a aspect notice, the dimensions of the circles is proportional to the proportion of contact in that bucket. Arraez’s greatest circles are line drives of varied sorts. He hardly has any excessive grounders or excessive popups. That’s what wonderful bat management appears to be like like.
How does that examine to Machado? After a spherical or two of dancing with Gemini, the instrument I constructed might help with that too:
You might just about guess this even earlier than this graph, however it’s nonetheless good to see it in photos. Machado is squaring up grounders on the identical charge, however his swing simply isn’t getting it carried out within the air proper now. We will throw in a 3rd hitter to indicate what it appears to be like like whenever you’re the other of Machado. Right here’s Bryce Harper, whose uppercut swing is etched into pitchers’ nightmares all over the place:
Harper is the brand new sequence, in Philly crimson. When he hits the ball on the bottom, he’s not often squaring it up. In different phrases, these are largely mishits; when he’s squaring the ball up, it’s usually within the air. He constantly beats Machado at squared-up charge within the air, and he hits extra fly balls as properly. He may not sq. the ball up as continuously as Arraez, however he swings a lot tougher and connects usually sufficient. Maybe unsurprisingly, he’s mashing thus far this 12 months.
For one more enjoyable comparability, let’s have a look at Aaron Choose and Juan Soto:
They’re each making pristine contact throughout the board. They’re at or above an 80% squared-up charge for just about the whole lot within the air, and so they’re each swinging exhausting too. That’s a lethal mixture. Choose is even avoiding grounders; he doesn’t actually have a left tail to talk of. His greatest cluster of launch angles is probably the most harmful one in baseball whenever you’re hitting the ball exhausting. In different phrases, he’s swinging exhausting, squaring the ball up continuously, and doing it on house run trajectories. No surprise he’s slugging .703.
These two elite hitters are getting it carried out in nearly the identical means. However it’s not the identical for everybody. The Dodgers’ three stars present some variation:
Mookie Betts has become an excessive fly ball hitter. Right here’s the graphical proof of why that’s working: He’s contacting the ball most squarely at round 30 levels of elevate, and he’s hitting the ball within the air extremely continuously. To the extent that he has mishits, he’s getting too far underneath the ball and popping it up, which is smart given his general strategy. Shohei Ohtani, too, is squaring the ball up most continuously within the air. He isn’t hitting a ton of grounders, although greater than Betts. He’s additionally completely rifling low line drives — have a look at all these excessive blue circles within the 10-20 diploma band.
Then there’s Freddie Freeman. He hits the whole lot sq. at about the identical charge. His most frequent launch angles are principally the whole lot from 10-40 levels. There’s nearly no variation in his line; each Betts and Ohtani have increased highs and decrease lows. Freeman’s swing appears to be a chameleon; it simply modifications to suit the contact kind. In numerous methods, he’s a burlier however much less exact Luis Arraez:
They each simply rake, plain and easy. Arraez hits it flush extra continuously, after all, however Freeman swings 7 mph quicker. Arraez focuses extra on the 5-15 diploma band; Freeman faucets into his energy by hitting extra balls within the 25-35 diploma vary. However they’re each completely peppering the whole lot, whether or not within the air or on the bottom, and so they each hit a ton of line drives. These guys are unimaginable.
We will do extra. Need to see some younger American League shortstop dynamos? Check out Bobby Witt Jr. and Gunnar Henderson:
Witt has a promising contact form, however not an ideal one. It’s like Freeman’s, solely shifted down a bit and with extra grounders. There are some crimson flags, like his comparatively low squared-up charge when he’s placing the ball within the air. To be sincere with you, although, I’m unsure how necessary squared-up charge is in these small and cut-up samples. I’m extra interested by form for now, and I’ll have time to do extra testing of how a lot the degrees matter later. The important thing half, for me, is that Witt’s most frequent outcomes are fly balls and line drives, however his most frequent square-ups happen on grounders. Make that correction, and much more upside could possibly be accessible.
Henderson, then again, looks as if he was designed in a lab. He squares the ball up most continuously on the launch angles the place exhausting contact is most advantageous. He doesn’t have sufficient popups to get any dots up there. His grounders are all mishits. Positive, possibly he might focus much more batted balls round his greatest swings, however he’s doing precisely what I would like each hitter to do: hitting the ball flush when he elevates, and doing so with plus bat pace.
Right here’s a thriller that this information can resolve: Why does Henderson have 20 homers to Witt’s 11? Witt hits the ball tougher, hits fewer grounders, and even has the next barrel charge. However Henderson’s swing is designed to sq. the ball up within the air extra continuously, so he’s lined up high-value launch angles and high-value exit velocities higher than his Kansas Metropolis counterpart.
I believe this information will get way more attention-grabbing when we’ve got entry to a number of years of historical past. I’d like to know if Kyle Tucker’s swing form has modified together with his decrease groundball charge and otherworldly manufacturing. I’d be interested by seeing how hitters who change their batted ball tendencies change their squared-up tendencies. I wish to see whether or not Nick Castellanos has at all times squared up the ball precisely like Bryce Harper, or whether or not he used to have a distinct form and the brand new one is correlated along with his downfall:
I haven’t fairly found out what to do with all of this in the long term. I believe it’s extra of a storytelling instrument than one thing that may let you know who shall be nice and who will battle. That mentioned, I really like the tales! Arraez is nice within the methods you’d count on. Betts maxes out on energy along with his swing. Harper’s uppercut is cool to see in information. And the way about that uppercut in opposition to Yandy Díaz’s ground-friendly methods:
Yandy is smashing these grounders. You and I already knew that, however it’s cool for this information to confirm the attention check. That’s principally what that is to me; a means of changing some dry information factors right into a story.
The instrument I constructed isn’t dwell on the pages of FanGraphs for a lot of causes. It’s hilariously rudimentary. It’s buggy. It’s programmed by me, a coding imbecile, somewhat than by our staff of wonderful builders. It may not even be helpful in the long term.
So no, you may’t simply click on on a single hyperlink and mess around with this to your coronary heart’s content material. However I’ve two issues to supply that may hopefully make it as much as you. First, that is an open supply venture. Yow will discover the Python script that generates these graphs right here, together with the underlying information. I’m definitely not assured that that is probably the most environment friendly approach to do issues – I used to be constructing from scratch with out numerous expertise on this space. If in case you have some enhancements or whatnot, let me know!
Second, I occur to have the code and the flexibility to put up photos to the web. So for those who’re interested by a specific comparability, ask me beneath within the feedback. I’ll get to as many as I can for the following day or so, as a result of I perceive that “hey, simply discover ways to use this laptop programming language actual quick” isn’t precisely a approach to assure broad entry.
So, yeah. That’s the tip! No actual conclusion in the present day, except for a) I believe this instrument is cool and b) listed below are some photos of it. I hope you prefer it, and I hope there shall be extra bells and whistles earlier than lengthy.
