The Mets head to London for a World Tour collection in opposition to the Phillies this weekend. Even after sweeping the Nationals, New York owns a 27-35 document that has them above simply the Rockies and Marlins within the Nationwide League. They’re remarkably solely 3.5 video games out of the Wild Card race, a testomony to the NL’s mediocrity past its high 4 groups. There are six golf equipment between the Mets and the present remaining playoff group, the Padres.
If the Mets don’t make vital enhancements within the subsequent six-plus weeks, they’ll head into deadline season as a vendor. Impending free brokers are all the time essentially the most obvious commerce candidates. The Mets haven’t any scarcity of leases they will market. Sean Manaea (who has a $13.5MM participant possibility for subsequent season), J.D. Martinez, Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, Adam Ottavino, Jose Quintana and Jake Diekman might all transfer. But there’s no extra fascinating Mets’ commerce candidate than their first baseman.
Pete Alonso is a couple of months from his first journey to the open market. He reportedly declined a $158MM extension provide final summer season. President of baseball operations David Stearns made clear all through the offseason that whereas the Mets had little interest in buying and selling Alonso over the winter, they didn’t anticipate reopening extension negotiations earlier than he hit free company.
That ought to spur loads of commerce hypothesis because the deadline approaches. That’s evidently already occurring in entrance places of work exterior of Queens. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote this week that a number of rival basic managers count on the Mets to commerce Alonso earlier than the deadline. That appears extra like knowledgeable hypothesis than a suggestion that his identify has come up in commerce talks up to now.
Will talks acquire professional traction within the coming weeks? There’s a simple argument for the Mets to maneuver Alonso. They evidently don’t plan on maintaining him from testing the free agent market. Alonso will start his subsequent contract in his age-30 season. When Stearns was operating baseball operations in Milwaukee, the Brewers most well-liked to not make investments closely in defensively-limited sluggers. He clearly has much more sources at his disposal now, nevertheless it’s honest to wonder if Alonso is the kind of participant round whom Stearns needs to construct.
That’s notably true with a slight downturn in Alonso’s batted ball metrics. He’s nonetheless able to hitting the ball as arduous anybody, however he has executed so much less regularly over the previous couple seasons. The Polar Bear’s charge of arduous contact (a batted ball with an exit velocity north of 95 MPH) peaked at 47.3% again in 2021. It dropped by a couple of factors in every of the following two seasons. This 12 months’s 40.1% arduous contact charge is a match for final season’s. It locations Alonso 129th out of 263 certified hitters.
The dip in arduous contact charge hasn’t made Alonso a nasty hitter, after all. He’s hitting .238/.315/.477 with 14 homers throughout 267 plate appearances. After accounting for the pitcher-friendly nature of Citi Area and a depressed league run atmosphere, that’s 27 share factors higher than common. Alonso stays a middle-of-the-order bat, nevertheless it’s a barely regarding pattern for a participant whose sport is constructed on energy.
If the entrance workplace has considerations about Alonso’s long-term projection, a commerce can be essentially the most smart choice. The Mets would get little or no in return in the event that they let him stroll in free company. They’d make him a qualifying provide, however they’d solely obtain a decide after the fourth spherical if he indicators elsewhere. As a luxurious tax payor, they’re entitled to the bottom compensation for dropping a professional free agent. The commerce presents they obtain this summer season will surely be higher than that, even when Alonso’s restricted management window and $20.5MM arbitration wage make it unlikely they’d get any top-tier prospects in return.
For the Mets to maintain Alonso, they’d must imagine there’s a practical path to the postseason in 2024 and/or be ok with their probabilities of retaining him in free company. Making the playoffs this 12 months isn’t inconceivable, however they’ve put themselves in a gap with their poor begin. Holding Alonso would most likely be extra concerning the latter state of affairs — an indication they’re assured that he’ll keep in New York after seeing what different groups will provide.
Proprietor Steve Cohen is able to outbidding anybody. He’s presumably eager on retaining Alonso, who has confirmed himself in New York and has been a fan favourite since his electrifying rookie season. But the Mets have been comparatively restrained within the final two offseasons after their frenzied effort to spend their means into competition in 2021 didn’t fairly pan out. (The Mets did win 101 video games in 2022, however they adopted up a first-round playoff exit with final 12 months’s 75 wins.) The Mets appear to be gearing up for a bidding battle with the Yankees and others on Juan Soto, which might take a few of the precedence away from Alonso.
It’s not less than price contemplating the chance that the Mets commerce Alonso earlier than making an attempt to carry him again subsequent winter. That’s not unprecedented however doesn’t occur typically, notably with gamers on the high of the market. A deadline commerce sometimes displays an understanding that the group and participant aren’t going to line up on contract figures.
How will the Mets deal with the state of affairs? Is Alonso going to be on the transfer this summer season?
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