Reviews of Salvador Perez’s Demise Have Been Exaggerated

For just a few years now, I’ve been ready for Salvador Perez to interrupt down.

There are three causes for this. First, he’s on the intersection of two sorts of hitter who’re prone to precipitous decline: Massive dudes who hit for lots of energy however don’t stroll a lot and free swingers who have to make quite a lot of contact. Perez is certainly one of seven gamers who’ve batted a minimum of 4,500 occasions because the 12 months 2000, with a profession stroll charge of seven% or much less and a profession ISO of .175 or extra. The opposite six are Eduardo Escobar, José Abreu, Javier Báez, Nick Castellanos, Adam Jones, and J.T. Realmuto. That’s 5 guys who watched it go in a rush and, properly, keep sturdy, J.T., we’re all rooting for you.

The opposite level is that Perez performs the toughest place within the sport. Not solely that, however he’s one of many largest guys to ever play that place often (a person who weighs 255 kilos and crouches 200 occasions a day, six days per week has to have thighs the dimensions of motorbike wheels) and he’s put in an unbelievable period of time there.

Over the previous 10 seasons, Perez has caught the fourth-most innings in MLB, regardless of lacking a whole 12 months attributable to damage. In his first 5 seasons because the Royals’ beginning catcher, Perez was third, first, first, second, and fourth within the league in innings behind the plate.

Up to now 5 or 6 years, Perez has suffered accidents to his eye, knees, and again — the physique components that begin to go in your 30s even in case you’re not strapping on the instruments of ignorance 5 days per week — along with a nutritious diet of acute baseball accidents: A concussion right here, a torn thumb ligament there, in addition to the torn UCL that price him all of 2019.

Plus he’s outdated now, a minimum of for a ballplayer. Perez is so outdated he had a cameo on Pitch. He’s so outdated he’s now performed on two distinct good Royals groups. Solely two different members of the 2015 Royals — Scott Alexander and Aaron Brooks — have performed within the majors this 12 months. And people two had been solely barely members of the 2015 Royals, pitching simply 10 1/3 innings between them. Certainly one of Perez’s outdated Royals teammates, Chris Younger, is now a World Sequence-winning GM.

And but, at age 34, Perez is hitting .315/.383/.521. Somewhat over two months into the season, Perez has 2.2 WAR and a 151 wRC+. He’s on monitor to blow away his profession excessive stroll charge (7.4%) and to publish his lowest strikeout charge (16.0%) since 2015, when the leaguewide Ok% was 10% decrease than it’s now.

If Perez has something like a standard second half, that is going to be the most effective full season of his profession.

So what’s happening? How is he doing this?

In 2022, Perez battled a thumb damage for a giant chunk of the season, limiting him to 114 video games — his lowest whole in a non-COVID-shortened season since 2012 — and a 108 wRC+. He performed 140 video games in 2023, however his bat regressed even additional, to a borderline-unplayable 86. By all accounts he’s wholesome this season, which is helpful. The thumb is a vital a part of any human’s bodily performance; it’s what separates us from spider monkeys, some would possibly say. If in case you have two working thumbs, you’re most likely going to be higher at baseball.

I discussed earlier that Perez was one of many most-used catchers of the 2010s, which took a toll on him bodily. The Royals, who rode their younger backstop exhausting and put him away moist a decade in the past, have lightened Perez’s workload considerably within the 2020s.

Let’s use Perez’s 2019 elbow surgical procedure as a dividing line. (The actual utilization change didn’t come till 2021, however Perez caught so few innings in 2020 the numbers are about the identical irrespective of on which aspect of the road that season goes.)

Earlier than the elbow damage, Perez was making greater than 93% of his begins and taking part in virtually 100% of his defensive innings at catcher. Since coming again in 2020, Perez has moved round extra, beginning a few quarter of his video games at DH and sprinkling in a begin at first base a pair occasions a month. He’s taking part in day-after-day; Perez appeared in 161 video games in 2021, and as of this writing has gotten into 60 out of 62 Royals video games this season.

However his catching quantity has decreased dramatically. From 2013 to 2018, Perez caught 75.3% of Kansas Metropolis’s obtainable catcher innings. Since 2020, that quantity has gone right down to 55.4%. Making the large man squat much less comes with apparent bodily advantages, nevertheless it additionally received Perez’s glove out of the lineup.

For many of his profession, Perez has completed a superb job of controlling the operating recreation and bounced between beneath common and above common at blocking. However many of the worth catchers can add by their protection comes from framing, and at this, Perez has been one of many worst in baseball way back to we are able to measure it.

Perez has put up some fairly wild offensive stats over his profession, however his profession excessive in WAR got here all the best way again in his first full season, 2013, at simply 3.2. I used to be left scratching my head over how a catcher may lead the league in dwelling runs, play virtually each recreation, and nonetheless come away with simply 2.7 WAR — this Perez did in 2021.

The reply is that for all his different optimistic attributes, Perez often offers away double-digit runs in framing. In 2021, Perez was a minus-19.6 in framing runs. That’s practically twice as dangerous, on a per-inning foundation, as infamous framing butcher Kurt Suzuki was the identical 12 months. (Poor man would’ve been a first-ballot Corridor of Famer if he’d come alongside within the Nineteen Eighties, earlier than OBP was invented and we knew the best way to quantify framing.)

This 12 months? Principally impartial: Baseball Savant has him within the forty ninth percentile for framing runs. Being merely common at one thing doesn’t sound spectacular, however when the baseline is among the worst in baseball, the impact is identical as going from common to elite.

And from a holistic perspective, these defensive good points have allowed Perez’s bat to pop. Are there indicators of flukiness? Certain. It’s exhausting to belief a .347 BABIP from a hitter whose profession BABIP is .291. However his wOBA is correct in keeping with his xwOBA, and he’s truly underperforming his xSLG by some 60 factors.

Perez has all the time swung so much, all the time made quite a lot of exhausting contact, and all the time hit the ball within the air. This 12 months, he’s simply doing extra of it. Perez’s GB/FB ratio (0.70) is the bottom of his profession and his pull charge (53.3%) is the very best of his profession. He’s within the ninetieth percentile or higher for barrel charge, xBA, xwOBA, and xSLG.

When hitters pull the ball within the air, good issues occur, and Perez can be doing that extra. When Perez hits a line drive or a fly ball to the pull aspect this 12 months, he’s hitting .635 and slugging 1.154. And since he’s such an energetic swinger with such a excessive contact charge, that occurs so much.

Pulled liners and fly balls account for six.1% of the entire pitches Perez has seen this 12 months, the very best share in baseball, or 10.2% of his swings (eighth in baseball) and 28.9% of his whole balls in play (tenth in baseball).

Little surprise, then, that Perez is having such a superb season. However what about his stroll charge?

As soon as once more, it’s not like Perez has made an enormous change. He’s swinging — and, most significantly, chasing — as a lot as ever. However he’s made huge good points within the areas the place pitchers wish to pitch: the Shadow Zone, the world 3 1/3 inches both aspect of the perimeters of the plate and 4 inches both aspect of the highest and backside of the zone. That is the place confusion reigns, the place pitchers can get hitters to take strikes and swing at balls.

And possibly as a result of Perez swings at all the pieces, he’s often fairly good right here. In 2023, he had higher numbers on this assault zone than he did typically (.321 wOBA within the shadow zone vs. .308 total). Because of this, pitchers didn’t give him a lot to work with right here.

Out of 341 hitters with a minimum of 100 plate appearances final season, Perez was useless final in share of pitches inside the shadow zone. However even in a misplaced offensive season, on this zone he was forty second in wOBA and twenty seventh in batting common. This season, he’s been even higher.

On pitches within the shadow zone, he’s first in baseball in batting common, SLG, and wOBA, and second solely to Aaron Choose in OBP. And on balls farther outdoors the zone, Perez has gotten extra disciplined. This season, he’s swinging at 33.0% of pitches within the chase and waste zones, which remains to be one of many 10 highest marks in baseball and greater than 4 occasions as excessive because the swing charges that Robbie Grossman, DJ Stewart, and Kyle Tucker are placing up on such pitches.

Nevertheless it’s down from 38.4% final 12 months, and Perez sees as many noncompetitive pitches as anybody within the league (37.9% this 12 months, third-highest amongst hitters who’ve seen a minimum of 200 whole pitches).

These are all high-quality margins, particularly with solely 60-odd video games’ value of knowledge. However Perez has made small good points in sufficient locations, modified sufficient Fs to Cs on his report card, that his specific abilities can shine by greater than they’ve in years. Anybody could be fortunate to “decline” so gracefully.