UFC 302 paths to victory: How can Dustin Poirier upset Islam Makhachev and end his story?

UFC 302 takes place this Saturday in Newark, NJ, headlined by a light-weight title struggle between champion Islam Makhachev and dwelling legend Dustin Poirier. Makhachev is one win away from tying the light-weight report for title defenses, whereas Poirier has one last probability to assert the one factor that’s eluded him throughout his MMA profession: an undisputed UFC title. Who will win and the way will every fighter go about their enterprise on Saturday? Let’s dive in.

Photograph by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Photographs

Paths to Victory for Islam Makhachev at UFC 302

At this level, there’s not a lot to say about Makhachev that hasn’t already been mentioned. Nonetheless solely 32 years previous, Makhachev is the highest pound-for-pound fighter within the sport and already a top-five all-time light-weight. When it’s all mentioned and carried out, there’s probability he goes down because the divisional GOAT, and a win over Poirier strikes him nearer to that endgame. However how will he do it? It looks like we already know.

Talking about Poirier forward of the struggle, Makhachev was sincere about the truth that his buddy and teammate Khabib Nurmagomedov beat Poirier already, and that they’ve the same gameplan for this struggle. And “beat” is placing it calmly. Although Poirier had some moments in opposition to Nurmagomedov, the reality is that Khabib demolished him along with his vastly superior grappling expertise. Makhachev seems poised to do the identical factor.

Poirier’s weak spot has all the time been his grappling. Whereas he’s a BJJ black belt and grappler by most requirements, he’s not a robust positional grappler and he’s far too prepared to sacrifice defensive standing un pursuit of low-percentage submission (the person merely wouldn’t cease leaping guillotines in opposition to Benoit Saint Denis regardless of his coaches telling him to not). That’s a giant drawback in opposition to a management grappler pretty much as good as Makhachev. Islam repeatedly received Alexander Volkanovski into dangerous positions the place the featherweight champion might do nothing, and he can do the identical to Poirier. Furthermore, Poirier additionally tends to surrender his again throughout transitions, and that’s one thing Makhachev could make him pay for.

The trick for Makhachev might be how he goes about getting the takedowns, and luckily, there’s a playbook for that as effectively. Makhachev is an distinctive wrestler and whereas he’s not pretty much as good of a shot-wrestler as Khabib was, he’s even higher within the clinch, each with knees and journeys. Poirier had some success preventing the palms and denying Khabib’s preliminary takedown makes an attempt once they fought, however had no reply for the journeys and chain wrestling that adopted. Islam can do precisely the identical to get this struggle to the bottom the place he’s massively favored, if Poirier doesn’t simply bounce a guillotine on him and quit the place on his personal.

In relation to the standup, Makhachev is pretty low quantity along with his placing, however he’s an distinctive defensive fighter, with good kicks and nice timing on his rear hand. So long as he stays aware of Poirier’s lead proper hook (arguably his finest punch and coincidentally the identical punch that Adriano Martins knocked Makhachev out with in his lone loss) then he needs to be positive.

Photograph by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Photographs

Paths to victory for Dustin Poirier at UFC 302

Poirier’s profession turnaround has been one of the vital fulfilling journeys to look at in MMA. Going from a hard-punching, reckless featherweight to one of the vital technically and defensively spectacular lightweights on the planet is not any small feat. It’s how Poirier gained an interim title and cemented himself as a future Corridor of Famer. And he’ll want each little bit of that on Saturday, plus heaps of fine fortune.

Whereas Makhachev is usually in comparison with Nurmagomedov alongside the traces of “Khabib however with higher placing” that comparability misses the mark. Makhachev is a “higher” striker in a vacuum however actually his recreation is a mirror of Khabib’s: he’s defensively tight however with low quantity, he’s a menace within the clinch, and most significantly, he permits fights come to him (he’s additionally not practically as imply as Khabib nor fairly as athletic however that’s probably not the purpose). Nurmagomedov’s recreation was constructed fully in service to his grappling. Makhachev’s isn’t. Makhachev’s recreation is outlined by being an amazing grappler, however he’s content material to maneuver to that part inside the rhythm of the struggle. It’s easy one possibility for Makhachev, not the one possibility. And that could be Poirier’s window for fulfillment.

Poirier’s solely reasonable path to victory is knocking Makhachev out. We all know that he will be knocked out and we all know that Poirier definitely is extra artful and hits more durable than Adriano Martins. We additionally know that Makhachev and his camp are enamored along with his placing means. If Makhachev needs to start out brawling, that’s good for Poirier. So draw him right into a brawl.

The one time Makhachev has ever seemed weak (apart from the Martins knockout) was his first struggle with Alexander Volkanovski, the place Volk merely competed as laborious as he might in all phases. As a result of Makhachev isn’t Khabib, when he will get a fighter down, it’s not instantly curtains by way of hellish elbows and ground-and-pound. Makhachev is happier to regulate, that means you can also make him work there. The extra you make him work, the extra drained he will get, that means takedowns don’t come as straightforward, that means he’ll begin placing extra as a result of he’s not somebody to power the difficulty. If Poirier can take Makhachev out of his consolation zone early, because the struggle drags on it’s going to transfer into territory that Poirier can excel in.

In service of that finish, Poirier has to remain within the middle of the cage and continuously put palms on Makhachev. Jabs and uppercuts for days, elbows when Makhachev steps inside, and fixed circling. Put quantity on Makhachev and see what finds the chin. Possibly nothing, and perhaps you lose, but it surely’s higher to go down swinging than leaping a guillotine with no probability of success.

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That is virtually definitely Poirier’s last probability at undisputed UFC gold. He’s 35 years previous and, frankly, doesn’t actually deserve this title shot. Within the well-known phrases of Jimmy McGinty, “there isn’t a tomorrow for you, and that makes you all very harmful individuals!” Poirier goes to let all of it hang around on Saturday. Will or not it’s sufficient? We’ll see.

Prediction

I’m an unapologetic Islam Makhachev fan however each fiber of my being needs to select Dustin Poirier to drag off the upset. He’s one of many only a few individuals which can be universally beloved in MMA and him successful a title at this stage of his profession, when he was actually written off, would immediately rank as one of many biggest moments in MMA historical past.

However this ain’t a Disney film. There are not any completely happy endings in sight. Simply the tough realities of the MMA world and its gods.

Makhachev is simply too defensively sound on the toes, too good on the bottom, and too sensible to offer Poirier any probability on this struggle. He’s the inheritor obvious to the very best fighter I’ve ever seen, and whereas I don’t suppose Makhachev is sort of what Khabib was, he’s 95 p.c of the best way there, which nonetheless makes him the very best fighter on the planet right now. Poirier is nice, however Islam is the very best.

Islam Makhachev def. Dustin Poirier by way of submission (rear-naked choke) — Spherical 3, 1:36