There isn’t a doubt 2024 has been a season of excessive unpredictability.
Initially of the yr who had each the Demons and Magpies lacking the finals, and the Hawks and Canines as the shape groups to shut out the house and away season?
And even Richmond to win the race to the underside and declare the wood spoon, whereas Carlton fell from second to just about lacking the top-eight?
The shocks are usually not going to finish simply because it’s September, so let’s dive into some daring predictions for the finals sequence.
5. Chris Scott to have a trick up his sleeve
There are many pundits who count on Geelong to crash out in straight units this finals sequence.
Which means dropping in week one to Port Adelaide, after which backing up with one other defeat to both the Western Bulldogs or Hawthorn – the 2 kind groups of the competitors.
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However Chris Scott has been round finals soccer lengthy sufficient to know a factor or two about this time of the season, and may have the Cats ready as greatest as they will. Even Kane Cornes famous his concern for the Energy, with the additional week for Geelong’s record-breaking coach to arrange.
The sport fashion of the Cats could not have been the prettiest in 2024 (the primary seven video games apart), however the Cats nonetheless managed to seal third spot.
Though the run residence featured simply two top-eight sides of their final 9, because the outdated adage goes, you may solely beat what’s in entrance of you – and that’s what the 2022 premiers did, profitable seven of these video games. It ought to have been eight, too, apart from a second-half collapse in opposition to St Kilda which value them a house ultimate ultimately.
It’s hardly the strongest finals check, however Geelong is a crew that is aware of what to anticipate in September – many have been there and performed it earlier than, together with the coach.
Scott is understood for some loopy and quirky plans and techniques, however there should be a technique to his insanity: he’s coached 28 finals in his 13 seasons in cost.
He’s additionally now joined esteemed firm, being the tenth particular person to have coached in 12 finals campaigns. He’ll absolutely have one thing up his sleeve to not bow out with out a struggle.
They’ve loads of factors within the Cats too, with a harmful Jeremy Cameron prepared to fireplace if not defended nicely – then there’s the back-ups with loads of factors on their boot in Tyson Stengle, Ollie Henry and Shannon Neale.
Brad Shut celebrates a aim. (Photograph by Mark Brake/Getty Photographs)
Port’s backline is weakened too, having misplaced rebounding defenders Kane Farrell and Dan Houston.
A win in Adelaide may be very doable if Geelong’s midfield can win sufficient ball and get it inside 50 successfully, and that places them one win away from one other grand ultimate on the ‘simpler’ aspect of the draw. Depend them out at your individual peril.
4. The Swans AND the Hawks to crash out
This can be stealing two predictions for the value one, however I’ve mixed them given they’re each bird-themed groups headed for a similar finals destiny.
This can be an unpopular opinion, however Hawthorn’s run is simply hours away from coming to an unlucky finish.
The Hawks have exceeded expectations this yr and largely have been working off confidence (and social media likes).
However finals are a special problem, and so they have been given in all probability the worst doable match-up within the first week, with out a journey interstate.
The Western Bulldogs are a harmful foe, and can doubtless attempt to tear aside their opponents early; it’s uncharted territory for an inexperienced squad.
That’s to not say Sam Mitchell’s males received’t put up a struggle at levels – however simply as essential as a win, the rising coach wants to make sure that any heartbreak doesn’t set again their 2025 marketing campaign emotionally, and keep away from a finals thrashing undoing the strides ahead the Hawks have made by way of psychological development this yr.
They’re set for large enchancment subsequent yr.
Sam Mitchell. (Photograph by Dylan Burns/AFL Photographs through Getty Photographs)
In the meantime, the Swans’ late-season run has been removed from convincing, dropping 4 from 5 at one level, together with a 112-point thumping to Port Adelaide.
The ladder-leaders salvaged one thing from the final three video games to clinch the minor premiership, however they had been all in opposition to bottom-eight sides – and had been a dodgy umpire’s name away from dropping to Collingwood.
It’s hardly clear that they’ve fastened what was incorrect on the again finish of the home-and-away season on this two-week break – Sydney limped over the road to the minor premiership, however could battle to seek out that further gear when pressured by finals groups with extra dedication.
Relying on how hungry Brisbane is in September, it’s fairly doable the 2022 grand finalists will likely be eradicated in Week 2.
3. Jamarra Ugle-Hagan will shine
The Bulldogs’ kind heading into the finals has been red-hot, with simply the one slip-up heading in, and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan has been simply as spectacular.
Since Spherical 18, the previous No.1 draft choose has baggned three four-goal hauls, together with his one goalless recreation in Ballarat in opposition to the Giants in a low-scoring recreation in windy circumstances.
His possessions have been in double figures throughout these seven video games, and his sort out strain has been robust too.
His confidence has been on the rise and whereas lots of consideration will likely be on the Canines’ midfield all through the finals, Ugle-Hagan’s position can’t be overstated if Luke Beveridge’s males are going to make a deep September run.
Jamarra Ugle-Hagan celebrates with Aaron Naughton after kicking a aim. (Photograph by Daniel Pockett/Getty Photographs)
Ought to the Bulldogs make it via the finals sequence to the final Saturday in September, don’t be shocked if Ugle-Hagan can significantly affect the scoreboard in a grand ultimate, too.
That is one crew that perhaps didn’t need the week off heading into finals, because the Canines had been trying like a well-oiled machine that had hit its peak on the proper time.
It shouldn’t matter although: this can be a high quality outfit, and Luke Beveridge has some further motivation personally, given the heavy criticism on his job at first of the yr.
What an ideal probability to silence the naysayers with a deep September run, and no less than a preliminary ultimate.
2. The Lions will likely be left licking their wounds… once more
Initially of the yr, it was straightforward to see Brisbane being decided to go one higher after the ache and struggling of dropping to Collingwood within the 2023 grand ultimate.
However regardless of a superb run in the midst of the season, they haven’t fairly lived as much as their potential in an underwhelming marketing campaign.
Sure, there have been accidents – which membership hasn’t had them? – but it surely’s onerous to inform simply how they’ll go in shut video games.
The final win in opposition to a top-eight opponent was in opposition to the Swans whereas the ladder leaders had been of their kind stoop – earlier than that, it was Port Adelaide, once they too had been struggling.
Once they took on the Giants a number of weeks in the past, they let a 30-point first-quarter lead slip; they haven’t been ending video games strongly, dropping the final quarter of their final three matches.
It will be a shock in the event that they had been troubled at residence in opposition to Carlton, however the actual check will then be the loser of the Sydney derby.
Lachie Neale of the Lions appears to be like dejected after the 2023 AFL Grand Remaining. (Photograph by Daniel Pockett/AFL Photographs/through Getty Photographs)
Do the Lions have one other gear to go to? Finals are a very completely different beast to the home-and-away season – and ending exterior the highest 4 means one loss and the crew will likely be headed for Mad Monday.
It could very nicely be one other season that received away, or what Lachie Neale labelled previous seasons as: “stuff-ups”.
1. Toby Greene will lead the Giants right into a granny
Final yr GWS fell one recreation in need of the decider, overwhelmed by the eventual premiers Collingwood.
For many of the season, they’ve performed like a crew that has the starvation and psychological power to go no less than one higher and erase the harm from lastseason.
After beginning with 5 straight wins, they fell right into a little bit of a lavatory, profitable simply three from 10, till a first-quarter thrashing in opposition to Carlton appeared to snap them out of it.
Toby Greene. (Photograph by Graham Denholm/Getty Photographs)
Not solely did the Giants come again and win, however went on a seven-game profitable streak to leap into the highest 4.
They’re again in an enormous means.
A minor hiccup may be forgiven within the ultimate spherical, given the Canines’ kind and what they had been enjoying for in robust windy circumstances in Ballarat – and the Giants actually had nothing to play for after sealing a top-four spot.
In massive finals, massive gamers get up. That calls on a participant of Greene’s expertise.
The eye of the Swans’ defence, and that of each different opponent they face, will likely be on stopping Coleman Medallist Jesse Hogan; however make no mistake, Inexperienced will likely be simply as, if no more, harmful for GWS.
This match-up may be very winnable for the Giants, too: they continue to be of their residence metropolis in opposition to the Swans in week one. Win after which they’re straight right into a preliminary.
That is in all probability the almost definitely path, but when they lose on the SCG, Adam Kingsley’s males face Brisbane or Carlton after which both Port Adelaide or Geelong on the street.
Regardless, in opposition to all seven potential opponents, they need to fancy their possibilities of profitable the flag.
