The Breeders’ Cup World Championships is the final word handicapping puzzle for horseplayers, and it’s particularly interesting to those that adhere to the maxim of “guess slightly to win quite a bit.”
The 14-race slate of Breeders’ Cup races brings collectively nice horses from all areas within the U.S. in addition to from abroad, which signifies that yr after yr, top-class runners with full résumés go off at odds far increased than they might in some other setting.
Discovering and enjoying longshots within the Breeders’ Cup can turn out to be much more profitable if you’ll be able to additionally choose – and toss out of your betting slips – a number of horses which are underlays; that’s, ones which are receiving extra help from bettors than they need to and thus carrying decrease odds (take a look at ABR’s primer on playing phrases for more information). Zigging whereas everybody else zags is the essence of astute betting in any surroundings, and in horse racing it will possibly result in astronomical payouts.
So, which morning-line favorites within the 2024 Breeders’ Cup are weak to lose at brief odds? 4 candidates are listed beneath from the 41st renewal of the World Championships and the third time the occasion is held “the place the turf meets the surf” – sensational Del Mar.
1. Lake Victoria (8-5, John Deere Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf): This filly enters the Breeders’ Cup checking each field that seemingly might be checked – she’s from the Coolmore colossus, skilled by Aidan O’Brien with Ryan Moore within the saddle, and most significantly, she’s undefeated via 4 begins in England and Eire, the final two being Group 1 stakes victories. Nonetheless … her final three wins have come in opposition to a complete of 16 opponents and he or she’ll in all probability be dealing with 13 on this race, she’s breaking from the rail, and he or she has not raced round one flip but, a lot much less two as all 4 of her wins have come on straight configurations. She’ll want to interrupt properly and never get crowded by a number of horses drawn close to to her on the skin with the intention to not get shuffled too far again earlier than the primary flip. She additionally should cope with the pace of second morning-line selection Thought Course of (5-2), a Del Mar-based filly who I count on will attempt to wire the sector. There are a number of intriguing longshots value contemplating within the Juvenile Fillies Turf, two of which – 20-1 photographs Kilwin and Could Day Prepared – are mentioned in Mike Curry’s Breeders’ Cup betting column. I truly assume Lake Victoria’s stablemate Heaven’s Gate (12-1) stands an opportunity at posting the upset as properly. I anticipate Lake Victoria will run very properly within the Juvenile Fillies Turf, however there are too many variables at play right here to just accept 8-5 odds within the win pool.
2. New Century (5-2, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf): New Century gained the bet365.com Summer season Stakes at Woodbine on Sept. 14 in his first North American begin, surging late to outfinish the Charlie Appleby-trained Al Qudra (4-1), who’s additionally entered within the Juvenile Turf. That race was held at a one-turn mile, and each have been spectacular (Al Qudra would possibly truly find yourself because the post-time favourite within the BC Juvenile Turf). Nonetheless, as with the Juvenile Fillies Turf, this two-turn mile race ought to have a full discipline breaking from the gate, and there are too many different high quality contenders current to again both of these runners at their morning-line odds. Among the many alternate options, Aidan O’Brien and Coolmore ship out Henri Matisse (6-1), who has gained two Group 2 stakes and in addition completed an in depth second a Group 1 and run properly in all three begins on turf rated pretty much as good. Notably, Appleby’s different entrant, Group 2 stakes winner Aomori Metropolis (10-1), shall be ridden by his first-call jockey William Buick, who was on Al Qudra within the Summer season Stakes. Chad Brown-trained Zulu Kingdom, an Irish-bred ridgling who’s 3-for-3 thus far with two wins at 1 1/16 miles, needs to be flying late below Flavien Prat and appears harmful as properly at 8-1 on the morning line.
3. Metropolis of Troy (5-2, Longines Breeders’ Cup Basic): Coolmore’s star 3-year-old is undoubtedly the middle of debate coming into Breeders’ Cup 2024, touting a 6-for-7 report highlighted by three consecutive open-length wins in Group 1 stakes a mile and 1 / 4 or longer. In fact, they have been all on turf, as have been all of his races, and on this “floor” query the dividing strains have been drawn. My take? Regardless that he’s a son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, accepting 5-2 odds on a colt that’s by no means competed on dust earlier than in opposition to a full discipline of achieved dust runners is inadvisable to say the least. Subsequent up on the percentages board is Fierceness (3-1), who would possibly find yourself the post-time favourite, and I’ve my doubts about his probabilities at a mile and 1 / 4 regardless of his spectacular win within the DraftKings Travers Stakes, which was aided by a trouble-free journey. That leaves a handful of contenders value contemplating at odds approaching or exceeding double-digits. I want Arthur’s Journey (15-1) didn’t draw an outdoor submit place, however however he gained the Whitney Stakes from the same submit in overpowering style – and in case you like him, you’ve additionally acquired to think about the horse that defeated him subsequent out within the Jockey Membership Gold Cup Stakes, Highland Falls (20-1). That colt will exit submit no. 2, simply to the within of Metropolis of Troy, and I count on jockey Luis Saez to be aggressive in establishing a dominant place from the break, doubtlessly crowding out his European rival. Japan’s Perpetually Younger (6-1) and Ushba Tesoro (12-1) additionally deserve consideration in a captivating betting race. I’ll be leaving Metropolis of Troy out of all three spots within the trifecta and utilizing Fierceness solely in third.
4. Conflict Like Goddess (5-2, Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf): This one is hard as a result of I, like many others, am a Conflict Like Goddess fan and have been since she gained her first stakes races again in spring 2021 throughout the early post-COVID days of returning to in-person attendance on the monitor. She’s confronted all comers since then, profitable two Grade 1 stakes in opposition to males and operating one in every of her greatest races on this occasion again in fall 2021 at Del Mar when she completed third by a half-length. Nonetheless, Conflict Like Goddess has solely gained one in every of her 4 begins this yr at age 7 and, pretty much as good as she’s been via the years, she’s not sufficient of a “win machine” (12-for-22 lifetime) to help at these odds. Entrants from Godolphin/Appleby (Cinderella’s Dream at 4-1) and Coolmore/O’Brien (Content material at 6-1) determine to be robust, and I’ll even be taking a protracted have a look at Canadian 2022 Horse of the 12 months Moira. That mare was a rallying third in final yr’s Filly & Mare Turf at Santa Anita Park, and in her prep race for Saturday she had manner, manner an excessive amount of floor to make up because the odds-on favourite in Woodbine’s E. P. Taylor Stakes and needed to accept second behind pacesetter Full Depend Felicia (entered right here at 12-1). I count on Flavien Prat to maintain Moira a lot nearer to the tempo within the Filly & Mare Turf and she will spring the upset at 8-1 morning-line odds.
