This characteristic supplies a capsule have a look at three horses who’re heating up on the Triple Crown path and three horses whose possibilities for the 2025 Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve usually are not fairly as robust as they beforehand had been.
Within the second version of this weblog for the 2025 run for the roses, the main focus is on the altering panorama of the 3-year-old male division during the last three weeks.
HEATING UP
1. Sandman
Judging from the response I’ve seen on social media and in print, I’ve loads of firm in coming away from the Southwest Stakes most excited in regards to the runner-up. Take nothing away from Pace King, who held off the late surge of Sandman by a size within the $1 million, 1 1/16-mile race Jan. 25 at Oaklawn Park, however by way of a Kentucky Derby candidate, give me Sandman seven days every week and twice on Sunday. The Southwest didn’t begin off with promise for Sandman – there are unhealthy begins after which Sandman’s monstrosity popping out of the Southwest beginning gate – when he was standing on two hind legs whereas rearing towards the grandstand as the remainder of the sector charged towards the primary flip.
Sandman regained composure rapidly however was final of 9 and eight ¾ lengths again after the primary half-mile whereas Pace King set a straightforward tempo. Sandman unfurled a sustained rally to move all however one opponent and was gaining floor on Pace King on the end line. A $1.2 million buy as a 2-year-old in coaching, the Mark Casse trainee has taken a while to mature however he’s bred to run all day and he’s improved his Equibase and Beyer Pace Figures in every of his final three begins: a third-place end within the Grade 3 Avenue Sense Stakes, a win on a one-mile allowance race at Oaklawn, and the Southwest. Sandman’s career-best 101 Equibase Pace Determine for the Southwest and new prime 92 Beyer Pace Determine make him very worthy of watching on the trail to Louisville.
2. Disco Time
Disco Time’s win within the Lecomte Stakes Jan. 18 at Truthful Grounds has been one of many harder Kentucky Derby prep races for me to judge in, effectively, eternally, and I outlined the explanations in my profile on Disco Time from Jan. 21. Basically, the race was remarkably sluggish any method you have a look at it, however on the similar time the Not This Time colt overcame an awfully huge journey and closed from 10th of 13 regardless of a gentle tempo on a sloppy, sealed observe. It was his first time that far again after beforehand urgent the tempo and his first strive on an “off” observe – this refers to a observe that has a moist floor and isn’t labeled as “quick.” Whereas I can’t communicate with certainty, for my part he was not aided by the floor however gained despite it. The preliminary velocity figures for the Lecomte had been … generously, not good. His 84 Equibase Pace Determine was a career-low and the 77 Beyer Pace Determine regressed again to equal that of his profession debut. Nonetheless, given the adversity he confronted within the race, I consider that win may be higher than it appears to be like on paper and the 12 Ragozin Pace Determine (decrease is best for the Ragozin numbers) he obtained for the Lecomte win was higher than I anticipated. Little doubt, the Brad Cox skilled homebred of Juddmonte Farms wants to enhance and begin operating sooner races, however he’s 3-for-3 now and firmly within the hunt for a beginning spot within the Kentucky Derby.
3. Pace King
I had little or no confidence in Pace King coming into the $1.25 million Southwest Stakes for one primary motive: he light late within the one-mile Remington Springboard Mile in his earlier begin and completed second after main in deep stretch. I didn’t count on him to have the ability to carry his velocity farther within the 1 1/16-mile Southwest on a observe that has a popularity for being a deep dust floor that may be tiring. He proved me (and others) improper at 14.30-1 odds to earn a spot on this record. One might make a compelling argument Pace King belongs greater up among the many prime three given he beat my best choice honest and sq., however the separator for me actually comes all the way down to stamina and the truth that I feel Sandman needs each little bit of the 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby distance. Then again, I nonetheless have vital doubts about Pace King’s capability to increase his velocity even one other sixteenth of a mile to 1 1/8 miles, a lot much less one other three-sixteenths of a mile. That being stated, I’m extraordinarily impressed with the Risky colt. He’s quick – 103 Equibase Pace Determine and 93 Beyer Pace Determine for the Southwest win – and his tactical velocity offers him an opportunity to work out an ideal journey in all of his races. The truth that Springboard Mile winner Coal Battle got here again to win the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park flattered Pace King’s runner-up end. Pace King is simply an excellent 3-year-old racehorse with a vibrant future. If coach Ron Moquett can construct up his stamina, there’s a good likelihood it is a Kentucky Derby horse.
Additionally eligible: Hypnus made a sterling first impression on the Jan. 18 Lecomte Stakes undercard with a 2 ½-length win from off the tempo in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race on the sloppy Truthful Grounds primary observe. Skilled by 2024 Kentucky Derby and Longines Kentucky Oaks-winning coach Ken McPeek, the colt by main sire Into Mischief earned a 91 Equibase Pace Determine and an 85 Beyer Pace Determine. He’s one so as to add to your Equibase Digital Secure. … Child Max gained the one-mile Leonatus Stakes Jan. 18 on the all-weather floor at Turfway Park and in addition owns a victory on the primary observe at Churchill Downs. He’s been strong since stretching out in distance with two wins and a second in three begins at a mile or longer. … Take Cost Tom improved to 3-for-3 with a one-length win within the $100,000 Riley Allison Derby Jan. 17 at Sunland Park. He’s not quick sufficient on paper, however he has some tactical velocity and will be capable to choose up qualifying factors in New Mexico if the connections keep on the Derby path.
COOLING DOWN
1. Patch Adams
I do know this most likely feels harsh given Patch Adams was making the bounce from a maiden win to a $1.25 million graded stakes race within the Southwest Jan. 25, however the hype was heavy round this Into Mischief colt coming into the race. He was the definition of a Kentucky Derby buzz horse coming off a blistering win at seven-eighths of a mile that earned a 110 Equibase Pace Determine and a 98 Beyer Sped Determine. He’s a really quick 3-year-old. However that subsequent step up at school is all the time a difficult one and, whereas Patch Adams didn’t precisely fail in a fourth-place end, he definitely didn’t flourish. Let’s name this a actuality verify. Patch Adams completed 2 ½ lengths behind winner Pace King and earned an 89 Beyer Pace Determine. He’s nonetheless sooner than most of his friends, however there may be vital work to be finished to grow to be a Kentucky Derby contender and his subsequent begin looms a significant hurdle. Qualifying factors are a should!
2. Gaming
Final 12 months’s FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Offered by TAA runner-up closed out his 2-year-old season with a distant third-place end within the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity. Given his efficiency within the Breeders’ Cup and his win earlier final 12 months within the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, I used to be prepared to miss that effort at Los Alamitos on a brand new floor. I’m additionally inclined to be considerably forgiving of his eighth-of-nine end within the Southwest, overwhelmed by 17 ½ lengths, as a result of he confronted vital adversity within the race. He broke poorly and was tossing his head round behind horses, then he and jockey Juan Hernandez had been pressured to take a look at of site visitors coming into the primary flip and dropped again to second to final. Gaming likes to be nearer to the entrance, so he undoubtedly was taken out of his gameplan within the Southwest then confirmed little in ending 16 ¾ lengths behind winner Pace King. Contemplating the place he was on most Kentucky Derby lists simply two months in the past, Gaming is trending the improper method. You prefer to see 3-year-olds construct up with every race and present regular enchancment; we now have not seen that from Gaming. It’s sink or swim time in his subsequent begin or his Kentucky Derby aspirations may very well be swept away.
3. Banks
After back-to-back open-length wins at one mile on the all-weather Tapeta Footings floor at Turfway Park, Banks was favored at 2.33-1 within the Leonatus Stakes on the similar observe and distance. With no apparent excuse, the Outwork gelding by no means confirmed a lot in his stakes debut and completed seventh of eight runners, overwhelmed by 11 ¼ lengths. Not the form of end result that conjures up confidence, however these class assessments are a big hurdle and Banks may be higher ready for his subsequent strive in a stakes race. For now, I don’t take into account him a participant on the Kentucky Derby path.
Of be aware: Chancer McPatrick labored three-eighths of a mile Jan. 26, his first timed exercise since what coach Chad Brown known as a “minor ankle surgical procedure.” It’s nice to see a gifted 3-year-old colt making his method again and this two-time Grade 1 winner completely qualifies as a severe prospect on the Triple Crown path. I point out him right here as a result of there may be little or no wiggle room for setbacks, so a single missed exercise would most likely drive him to overlook a deliberate begin within the March 8 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby and all of the sudden issues begin to get more difficult on the trail to Louisville. It was nice, nonetheless, to see his title on the exercise tab.
