Welcome to 2024 Triple Crown Prospect Profiles, the place we’ll have a look every week at a latest winner on the U.S. Classics path, with the main target this week on final week’s Preakness Stakes and the upcoming 156th working of the Belmont Stakes Offered by NYRA Wagers June 8 at Saratoga Race Course.
The sphere for the 1 ¼-mile Belmont Stakes is predicted to incorporate a number of runners who participated within the Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve Could 4 at Churchill Downs, together with runner-up Sierra Leone. Corridor of Fame coach D. Wayne Lukas additionally mentioned he plans to ship Preakness Stakes winner Seize the Gray to the Belmont Stakes, supplied the colt continues to do effectively after his victory within the $2 million center jewel of the Triple Crown.
So this week, we’ll take a more in-depth take a look at Seize the Gray, the front-running winner of the Preakness Could 18 at Pimlico, and consider his probabilities to attain a second basic win within the Belmont Stakes.
Racing Résumé: Seize the Gray added a marquee victory to his credentials with a 2 ¼-length win within the 1 3/16-mile Preakness Stakes. He opened a two-length lead by a stable half-mile in :47.33 underneath jockey Jaime Torres, turned again Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan’s bid coming into the stretch, and powered away to a dominant win within the second jewel of the U.S. Triple Crown.
Seize the Gray completed his last eighth of a mile in :13.02 and last quarter-mile in :25.66, in line with Equibase’s GPS chart. Neither time is particularly quick, however given the muddy situations and the truth that Seize the Gray set the tempo, it’s notable that just one horse within the race completed quicker. Catching Freedom clocked a last eighth of a mile in :12.84 after he was reserved seven lengths again after a half-mile however by no means got here near threatening Seize the Gray within the stretch.
Performances on “off” tracks can typically be a bit deceptive however, if something, Seize the Gray’s win is likely to be extra spectacular than it initially appeared. Not like among the different Preakness contenders, Seize the Gray didn’t have a bonus when it comes to relaxation on runner-up Mystik Dan (the Kentucky Derby winner) and third-place finisher Catching Freedom as he additionally got here again off of two weeks relaxation, having received the Pat Day Stakes Offered by SAP on the Derby undercard.
Seize the Gray received for the fourth time total in 10 begins and improved to a few wins in 5 races in 2024. His two losses this 12 months had been a third-place end within the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks on the all-weather floor at Turfway Park and a well-beaten seventh-place end within the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.
Each of these races had been at 1 1/8 miles, which is why coach D. Wayne Lukas lower him again to a mile to contest the Pat Day Mile on the Kentucky Derby undercard. But it surely seems it was the circumstances in these races, not the space, that was the problem. He was large whereas racing on an all-weather floor within the Jeff Ruby and he bought pinched again early within the Blue Grass Stakes, dropping effectively off the tempo, after which was compelled to race large once more on each turns.
Seize the Gray benefitted from a lot better journeys within the Pat Day Mile and Preakness Stakes and it made an enormous distinction. Racehorses can enhance considerably within the first half of their 3-year-old seasons and Seize the Gray seems to have achieved simply that.
Waiting for the Belmont Stakes, the ultimate basic will likely be shortened to 1 ¼ miles and switched to Saratoga Race Course this 12 months due to development at Belmont Park. Seize the Gray has a front-running win on the Saratoga foremost monitor in a maiden race and a third-place end in a stakes race, each final summer time as a 2-year-old.
Pace Figures: Seize the Gray wanted to take a step ahead when it comes to velocity figures to be a viable win contender within the Preakness and he did so, incomes a career-top 101 Equibase Pace Determine and 100 Beyer Pace Determine. Previous to that, he had been pretty constant this season in 5 begins. His Equibase line reveals an eight-point leap: 90-93-91-93-101. His line of Beyer Pace Figures by 5 begins in 2024 – 82-85-82-88-100 – suggests the Preakness was a major 12-point enchancment. With a purpose to be a win candidate within the Belmont Stakes, Seize the Gray very seemingly must duplicate or higher these career-best figures on three weeks of relaxation.
Operating Model: Seize the Gray’s 4 wins have all come when setting the tempo or monitoring inside a few lengths. He’s greatest when utilizing his tactical velocity to his benefit. His three unplaced finishes got here in races the place he was fifth or worse early and greater than 4 ¾ lengths off the tempo. He has run effectively in a few races when rallying from off the tempo, however Seize the Gray appears to be like like a a lot better racehorse when he’s on or close to the lead.
Connections: MyRacehorse, based in 2018 by Michael Behrens, gives possession alternatives on the micro-share stage. MyRacehorse was a minority proprietor of 2020 Kentucky Derby winner and Horse of the 12 months Genuine and struck lightning once more in 2024 with Seize the Gray, owned solely by MyRacehorse.
Whereas partnering to purchase a racehorse with a handful of associates is sort of not possible for most individuals when you’re speaking about six- and seven-figure sums, MyRacehorse permits individuals to buy fractional shares of Thoroughbred for about $100. In Seize the Gray’s case, he has 2,570 homeowners from 42 totally different states who paid $127 a share and now personal a Preakness winner.
Corridor of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, 88, trains Seize the Gray for MyRacehorse. Lukas is a four-time Eclipse Award winner as excellent coach who was inducted into the Racing Corridor of Fame in 1999. Lukas received his first U.S. Triple Crown race within the 1980 Preakness with Codex. He’s now received the Preakness seven occasions together with 4 Kentucky Derby wins and three victories within the Belmont Stakes. He’s nicknamed “The Coach” primarily as a result of he was a former basketball coach but additionally as a result of so lots of his assistants have gone on to nice success, corresponding to fellow Corridor of Famer Todd Pletcher. Along with his Triple Crown success, Lukas counts 20 Breeders’ Cup victories amongst his greater than 4,900 profession wins as a coach.
On the other finish of the age spectrum is Seize the Gray’s rider Jaime Torres, 25, who has solely been driving for 4 ½ years and earned his first profession graded stakes win aboard Seize the Gray within the Pat Day Mile. The Puerto Rico native rode his first race as an expert within the U.S. in August 2022 and now has a Preakness Stakes victory on his résumé.
Pedigree Notes: Seize the Gray is from the final of three crops of 2016 champion 3-year-old male Arrogate, winner of the 2016 Travers Stakes, 2016 Breeders’ Cup Basic, and 2017 Emirates Airline Dubai World Cup, all at 1 ¼ miles. He additionally received the $12 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes at 1 1/8 miles in 2017. Along with Seize the Gray, Arrogate has sired 2023 Belmont and Travers Stakes winner Arcangelo, final 12 months’s champion 3-year-old male; 2022 Longines Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Oath, and Grade 1 winners Cave Rock, Enjoyable to Dream, and And Inform Me Nolies. Arrogate died in 2020 at age 7.
Seize the Gray was produced by the Sensible Strike mare Sensible Buying, who received one among 4 begins and positioned within the one-mile and 40-yard Suncoast Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Sensible Buying is a half-sister (identical dam [mother], totally different sire) to Grade 1 winner Energy Dealer and stakes winner Fierce Boots.
Belmont Stakes Potential: Final 12 months, I believed front-running Preakness winner Nationwide Treasure could be overrated coming into the Belmont Stakes, however this 12 months I feel the other could possibly be the case with Seize the Gray. Many will most likely dismiss the Preakness win as aided by the muddy monitor and lack of stress whereas setting the tempo, and there’s some fact to that. However I don’t view Seize the Gray’s Preakness win as a fluke. He’s been superb this 12 months as a 3-year-old when he has gotten the appropriate journey, and I anticipate Torres and Lukas to be aggressive early with their cost within the 1 ¼-mile – it feels bizarre to sort that – Belmont Stakes.
Tactical velocity is a useful asset in these two-turn races and Seize the Gray has a ton of basis with 10 profession begins, together with 5 this 12 months. Supplied he comes out of the Preakness in good order, he must be ultra-fit. Don’t anticipate $21.60 once more within the Belmont Stakes for a $2 win guess, however with a efficiency just like his Preakness win Seize the Gray is a authentic contender within the Belmont Stakes and he may once more provide stable odds.
His Corridor of Fame coach positive sounds assured: “If they’re going to beat him, they could need to prolong it again to a mile and a half,” Lukas mentioned in reference to the Belmont Stakes being a mile-and-a-quarter race at Saratoga. “If we go [to the Belmont], he’ll be robust. He can get a mile and 1 / 4.”
