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2024 Olympics: Is Group USA assured to win girls’s basketball gold?

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Sure, Group USA is the perfect on the earth, heavily-favored to win an eighth-straight gold. However, what nationwide groups may credibly problem the People for the spot on the highest of the rostrum? Swish Attraction’s latest contributor Beckett Harrison energy ranks the highest 5 groups within the girls’s 5×5 basketball competitors on the 2024 Olympic Video games:


1. United States

2024 USA Basketball Showcase - Practice

Group USA’s A’ja Wilson.
Picture by Ryan Stetz/NBAE by way of Getty Photographs

Strengths: All the things

Weaknesses: Minimal preparation

Lively WNBA gamers: Napheesa Collier, Kahleah Copper, Chelsea Grey, Brittney Griner, Sabrina Ionescu, Jewell Loyd, Kelsey Plum, Breanna Stewart, Diana Taurasi, Alyssa Thomas, A’ja Wilson, Jackie Younger

Since 1992, three issues in life have been sure: dying, taxes and Group USA successful gold in girls’s basketball. Not solely was the 1992 semifinal loss to the Unified Group (athletes representing recently-dissolved Soviet Union international locations) the final time that the People didn’t safe gold, it was the final time that they misplaced an Olympic recreation. Since then, it’s been nothing wanting ascendancy. Seven-straight gold medals. Fifty-five-straight wins.

Not a lot must be stated concerning the expertise on the roster. A’ja Wilson is the perfect girls’s basketball participant within the universe. Breanna Stewart, Alyssa Thomas and Napheesa Collier headline a generational supporting forged. Diana Taurasi is seeking to turn into the primary basketball participant with six Olympic golds.

The one lingering query surrounding Group USA stems from their rushed schedule. All 12 gamers are coming off a aggressive half-season within the WNBA. They’ve solely performed two video games as a bunch, shedding to Group WNBA within the All-Star Sport on Saturday earlier than defeating Germany in London on Tuesday of their lone worldwide pleasant match earlier than group play begins. Concern is at a minimal, however don’t be shocked if Group USA debuts with a sluggish begin as chemistry is ironed out.

2. Australia

2020 Tokyo Olympics: USA v Australia

Australia’s Ezi Magbegor.
Picture by Stephen Gosling/NBAE by way of Getty Photographs

Strengths: Expertise, depth

Weaknesses: Lack of an “x-factor”

Lively WNBA gamers: Rebecca Allen, Isobel Borlase*, Ezi Magbegor, Jade Melbourne, Alanna Smith, Stephanie Talbot, Kristy Wallace, Sami Whitcomb

*denotes a “draft & stash” participant who hasn’t but made their WNBA debut

Predicting which crew has the perfect likelihood to upset Group USA is like predicting which coloration unicorn you’re going to see in your mid-morning stroll. Australia is the second finest crew within the Olympics on paper, however the probability of that leading to something however a silver medal feels slim.

The Opals be a part of Germany and Canada as the one non-American groups with a number of, lively WNBA gamers. Germany has three and Canada has 4. Australia has eight, making up the vast majority of their 12-player roster. Additionally they have the legendary 43-year-old Lauren Jackson, who’s nonetheless competing within the WNBL after her illustrious 12-year WNBA profession, during which she received a record-tying three MVP awards. It’s onerous to imagine that Jackson will see significant minutes in Paris, however her presence is a narrative nonetheless.

Australia has expertise, they’ve depth and so they have expertise. It’s really tough to quantify their crew success, as WNBA commitments stop the vast majority of their roster from competing in non-Olympic worldwide competitions. Within the February Olympic Qualifying Match, Australia defeated Brazil, Germany and Serbia en path to an ideal 3-0 report.

The largest hole on this Australian crew is the shortage of a needle-mover. Liz Cambage, who embraced the “x-factor” position in earlier Olympics, has been disgraced from the pantheon of ladies’s basketball and not competes for the Opals. Ezi Magbegor doubtless will inherit a lot of the crew’s offensive utilization, and whereas she’s turn into a bonafide star with the Seattle Storm, maintaining step with the likes of A’ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart will likely be an uphill battle if the 2 groups meet.

With no notable edge, the power of the Opals to compete with Group USA is in query. They don’t do something higher than the dynamic American squad. Within the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, Australia’s poor 1-2 report in group play was rewarded with a first-round cage combat versus the People. Australia was routed 79-55. Nonetheless, this Aussie pack is match to cope with each different crew within the competitors, and a berth within the knockout spherical ought to be considerably of a assure.

3. France

2020 Tokyo Olympics: Japan v France

France’s Gabby Williams.
Picture by Ned Dishman/NBAE by way of Getty Photographs

Strengths: Shot-creation, size

Weaknesses: Inconsistency

Lively WNBA gamers: Leïla Lacan*

*denotes a “draft & stash” participant who hasn’t but made their WNBA debut

France, who completed third within the 2020 Olympics, is seeking to make waves because the host nation this 12 months in Paris. Since a loss within the 2022 FIBA World Cup to China, France is 23-1 in worldwide competitors. They’ve received every of their 4 latest Olympic friendlies by a median of 43 factors (though aided by two 50-plus level victories over an unremarkable Finland crew). Of their group stage assembly with Group USA in Tokyo, they solely misplaced by 11 factors.

Offensively, France stands out as the most “WNBA-coded” crew within the Olympics. They don’t draw back from isolation basketball as a strategy to create benefits. Though Leïla Lacan is the one “lively” WNBA participant for Les Bleues, Marine Johannès and Gabby Williams are two of essentially the most proficient bucket-getters within the worldwide scene. Johannès, who has periodically come off the bench for France, is an absolute flamethrower who can change the trajectory of any recreation. Williams is the doubtless candidate to steer the French in factors. Williams and Johannès had been each unable to play within the WNBA this 12 months as a result of league’s prioritization restrictions, however will undoubtedly make their stateside return in 2025.

The defensive finish of the court docket is the place France has essentially the most potential to do injury. They’ve extraordinarily lengthy defenders who constantly push catches out previous the perimeter and trouble ball handlers. Their aggressive fashion of defending can disrupt offense and create transition alternatives for straightforward factors.

A conflict with China confirmed France’s skill to deal with dimension, which is a necessity when previewing a possible matchup with Group USA. They held the 6-foot-11 Han Xu, previously of the New York Liberty, to solely 4 factors within the Olympic Qualifying Match earlier this 12 months. Los Angeles Sparks 6-foot-7 heart Li Yueru additionally struggled within the recreation, notching solely eight factors in comparison with her match common of 19.

The largest battle that France will face will likely be with their very own offensive inconsistencies. As they rely closely on isolation guard play, they don’t have a dependable outlet for scoring when photographs aren’t falling. Alexia Chery and Marième Badiane aren’t constant scoring threats regardless of taking over lots of the minutes at ahead for Les Bleues. 6-foot-6 heart Dominique Malonga has proven promising flashes of effectivity, however the 18-year-old could also be one Olympic cycle faraway from contributing in a significant manner.

4. Japan

2020 Tokyo Olympics: Japan v France

Japan’s Rui Machida.
Picture by Stephen Gosling/NBAE by way of Getty Photographs

Strengths: Taking pictures, analytics

Weaknesses: Measurement

Lively WNBA gamers: None

Japan is just not a rustic recognized for his or her basketball prowess, however they might have essentially the most clear win situation of any crew seeking to dethrone the People: They’ll attempt to shoot the roof off the gymnasium.

Because the hosts of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, Japan led the match in 3-point share, 3-point quantity and was second in scoring to Group USA. They had been penciled in by many as non-contenders, however a silver medal marketing campaign marked the primary time that any Japanese basketball crew (males or girls) earned a spot on an Olympic podium. They misplaced to Group USA within the ultimate 90-75, capturing solely 8-for-31 (25.8 p.c) from 3, nicely beneath their 38.4 p.c match common.

A lot of the explanation that they shot poorly was due to the suffocating protection of Group USA’s guards. Nevertheless, it’s not inconceivable {that a} rematch may yield a special outcome. Japan performs into fashionable basketball analytics, capturing virtually solely 3s and layups. They’ll blow opposing groups out of the water in any given recreation if their photographs are falling. Their star of the 2020 Olympics was Rui Machida, the 5-foot-4 guard who led the match in assists per recreation at 12.5 (5 greater than the following finest participant) and set an Olympic report for assists in a recreation with 18. Machida, whose Olympic efficiency landed her a one-year stint with the Washington Mystics in 2022, will likely be reprising her position as Japan’s offensive engine in Paris.

Japan completed 4-1 within the 2023 Ladies’s Asia Cup. They led the match in factors and solely misplaced to China (5-0), though it’s vital to notice that almost all of Australia’s Olympic roster didn’t compete within the Asia Cup on account of aforementioned WNBA commitments.

With essentially the most outlined edge sadly comes essentially the most obtrusive flaw. To name Japan’s roster small could be beneficiant. They’re tiny at each place. The common peak of their gamers is 5-foot-8. Maki Takada and Himawari Akaho, the tallest gamers on Japan’s squad, stand at 6-foot-1. Japan’s dimension has manifested itself precisely as one would anticipate. They don’t have any solutions in the case of containing inside threats, and subsequently depend on outpacing opponents from the 3-point line. They conceded 30 factors on 14-for-18 capturing to Brittney Griner within the 2020 ultimate. Though Japan is 5-2 of their friendlies in preparation for Paris, they had been outrebounded by 11 and 14 of their losses to Belgium and France, respectively. Japan’s ceiling is within the stratosphere, however their flooring lies someplace beneath the depths of the Seine River.

For the second straight Olympics, Japan has discovered themselves in the identical group as the USA. A rematch of the Tokyo ultimate on July 29 would be the first recreation for each groups in group play.

5. China

2020 Tokyo Olympics: Belgium v China

China’s Han Xu.
Picture by Ned Dishman/NBAE by way of Getty Photographs

Strengths: Measurement, connectivity

Weaknesses: Perimeter impression

Lively WNBA gamers: Li Yueru

The ultimate spot on this prime 5 may have simply gone to a variety of international locations. Parity is alive on this 12 months’s match. Spain and Belgium particularly deserve recognition, however China has been too constant in recent times to be omitted. It additionally helps that China is located in Group A (China, Puerto Rico, Serbia, Spain), which has a robust argument to be the weakest group in Paris.

In Tokyo, China was undefeated via group play. They dealt with Puerto Rico, Australia and Belgium, however had been despatched dwelling in a heartbreaking fourth-quarter collapse in opposition to Serbia within the preliminary knockout spherical. They redeemed themselves within the 2022 FIBA World Cup, defeating France and Australia earlier than shedding to Group USA within the ultimate. Final 12 months marked one other triumphant worldwide marketing campaign, as China received each the Asia Cup and the Asian Video games basketball match.

China’s roster is spearheaded by intimidating dimension and unrelenting consistency. Yueru and Xu are distinctive screeners who roll onerous to the basket and demand collective defensive consideration. The restricted mobility of China’s bigs signifies that defensive switching is out of the query, however their skill to anchor close to the restricted space and contest photographs permits China’s guards to aggressively navigate screens and funnel ball-handlers inwards. Head coach Zheng Wei has achieved an exceptional job of getting her crew to execute on the highest degree since taking up in 2022. When watching China play, it’s obvious that each one gamers are on the identical web page and are snug inside Wei’s system.

To place their draw back plainly, China has been horrific in latest friendlies. They’ve been defeated by seven of the 12 Olympic groups for the reason that starting of June, scraping up a lone win in opposition to the mostly-absent Australia. Li Yueru has not been with the crew on account of her WNBA dedication, however it’s unlikely that she would have altered lots of the disappointing outcomes. China’s most noticeable limitation is their backcourt. Not one of the Chinese language guards have an distinctive skill to beat defenders off the dribble. They forfeit a big quantity of athleticism to most opponents on the place. Li Meng, the previous Washington Mystic sharpshooter, is a deadly menace from past the arc, however depends closely on set performs to get open. Assuming they can recenter themselves earlier than group play, China ought to nonetheless be a robust candidate to progress within the knockout spherical.

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