The 2024 MLB Draft has concluded, and it’s time to make definitive judgments about which groups did the very best and worst earlier than lots of the gamers have even signed their offers. Simply kidding — whereas I do have a couple of team-specific ideas under, this piece is extra about what unfolded throughout the draft as a complete. I texted people within the business (scouts, executives, and brokers) to see what they considered the general outcomes, and in the event that they observed a continuation of broad business tendencies or noticed conduct particular to this 12 months’s proceedings. I’ve integrated a few of their ideas under.
Groups Leaning On Faculty Contact Hitters
If there was a common response from staff personnel over the past couple of days about this draft, it was that, particularly on Day Two, groups prioritized faculty hitters who had demonstrated bat-to-ball potential. Rutgers shortstop Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (A’s) and Texas Tech catcher Kevin Bazzell (Nationals) obtained issues kicked off within the third spherical, after which gamers who both want a swing change, like Oklahoma State’s Zach Ehrhard (Crimson Sox, fourth spherical), or to get a lot stronger, like Eli Serrano (Mets, fourth spherical), had been additionally frequent Day Two alternatives. There’s a rising variety of groups that will quite have contact expertise on board to start out after which attempt to add or increase different stuff, like power or swing mechanics, later. The overall sentiment is that hitting is tougher to show. This isn’t common (the Orioles took Vance Honeycutt within the first spherical), and I believe it could actually simply be argued that having an up-the-middle defensive match (particularly the athleticism to play shortstop or heart area) is each bit as innate and doubtless scarcer. One other variable that appears to have motivated this reasoning brings me to my second overarching theme…
The Altering Run Surroundings in Faculty Baseball Has Made Energy (and Different Traits) Harder to Belief and Consider
There have been items written about this elsewhere, and it was a standard chorus amongst staff personnel throughout the lead as much as the draft and after. No matter is altering the run atmosphere (there are some business rumors/conspiracy theories about bat juicing in faculty baseball), it gained’t have an effect on whether or not or not a hitter makes contact. Hitting a baseball is sometimes called the toughest factor to do in skilled sports activities, and as pitchers get higher and higher, discovering guys who can really do it’s a league-wide precedence. I do suppose we’re using the asymptote of pitcher growth so far as quantum leaps in method are involved and that hitter dev is beginning to catch up, however orgs can nonetheless apply pitching dev methodology to arm after arm.
The Mariners’ Draft
That is the second 12 months in a row that the Mariners’ pursuit of over-slot excessive schoolers meant they pivoted to older gamers sooner than different golf equipment. Whereas their 2023 class yielded extra younger gamers as a result of they’d so many picks, this 12 months’s Ryan Sloan choice within the second spherical (he may very well be greater than $2 million over slot) led them to a number of 23-ish-year-old seniors and grad college students on Day Two. Kansas reliever Hunter Cranton (higher 90s with plus-flashing slider — he’s going to maneuver shortly), Oregon righty Brock Moore (moved into starter position late within the season and held 94-96), and two-way participant Grant Knipp (one of many hardest throwers on the Mix, 95-97) had been the extra distinguished of the six seniors they chose. I’ve written this earlier than: There’s worth in being the primary staff to start out taking these guys since you get the very best ones. Often while you draft big-bonus excessive schoolers, you find yourself with a top-heavy class and are vulnerable to being gentle on depth. The Mariners averted that.
We Simply Had the Fewest Excessive Faculty Gamers Drafted, Ever
Not less than, inside 20 rounds, excluding the five-round 2020 draft. A few of that is particular to the expertise make-up of this class, which was gentle on excessive schoolers. You realize the sensation you get while you first open a bag of chips and see how few are literally in there? That’s what’s felt like scouting this highschool class final summer season.
There are different forces at play right here as properly. Participant growth is extra expensive now due to essential adjustments made to how minor leaguers are paid and housed. MLB has slashed away 60 minor league associates from its golf equipment’ farm methods in response to the rise in per participant value, and in addition reduce the draft in half, from 40 rounds to twenty. A discount in minor league roster spots and the dearth of post-draft, short-season associates (the previous Northwest, Appalachian, and Pioneer Leagues), the place newly drafted faculty gamers typically started their careers, creates a expertise bottlenecking impact on the faculty degree. Main League Baseball (observe the capitalization — I’m referring to the enterprise entity right here) has an incentive to outsource participant growth to varsity baseball, and it’s a symbiotic relationship as a result of the NCAA would like to have a extra gifted and watchable “product.”
I’ve requested folks if the pull of NIL cash in faculty is a part of the equation, and whereas it definitely is so far as selecting a faculty and navigating the switch portal is anxious, folks with huge league groups have constantly informed me that the brand new cash flying round faculty baseball hasn’t actually impacted their potential to signal gamers. Schools have provided some gamers some huge cash to switch or keep at their faculty (the best rumored quantity is within the mid-six figures), however even when, say, Texas A&M is providing you $500,000 or so to stay round, if the Angels draft you within the third spherical, your bonus goes to be a lot larger than that.
The Brewers’ Draft
The Brewers adopted up on their excessive school-heavy 2023 draft with a fair youthful group this 12 months, and it reveals an attention-grabbing technique. Their first spherical decide, Braylon Payne, was usually seen as a second-round prospect. His bonus is more likely to be properly under the $4.5 million slot worth of his decide, with some quantity of the surplus pool house diverted to the highschool pitching prospects they chose within the second and Comp B rounds, New Jersey excessive schoolers Bryce Meccage and Chris Levonas. Additionally they popped excessive schoolers in rounds 9 and 10, after which took a number of on Day Three. Not all of those guys are going to signal however a number of of them will. Recall final 12 months that Brewers obtained Cooper Pratt’s deal completed for $1.3 million within the sixth spherical after which additionally signed a number of excessive schoolers for between $250,000-$550,000 on Day Three of the draft. Day Three picks don’t have bonus slots that scale back your staff’s pool if the participant doesn’t signal, so other than a bit of alternative value (the faculty man they’d have in any other case taken in spherical 14 or no matter), the Brewers can now negotiate with a bunch of higher-upside highschool gamers between now and the signing deadline and resolve what mixture of bonuses and gamers offers them the very best total class.
A number of groups do a model of this yearly, however no person does it to this diploma. Whether or not it was precipitated by the character of this specific draft class or simply how the board fell within the first spherical (i.e. the Brewers didn’t like who was left on the board, in order that they pivoted to this technique), we simply don’t know.
Excessive Faculty Pitching Is The Rags
Is it potential groups are valuing highschool pitching much less and fewer as time goes on, and that we’ve now hit some sort of backside? In a draft that was the deepest in highschool arms amongst all of the participant demographics, the very best one (in my view), William Schmidt, determined to pull his title out and go to LSU quite than be drafted. The following-best one, Cam Caminiti, had an “sudden” fall and was the primary highschool pitcher chosen at decide 24 in a weaker draft. (I had Caminiti ranked twenty first, so whereas my draft evening chat was dropping its thoughts that he was falling, he went about the place I had him.)
The time it takes highschool pitchers to develop (each from a technical perspective and from a sturdiness standpoint) and the chance that they gained’t (take into consideration how totally different pitching as soon as every week for two-and-half months is in comparison with a full-season professional workload) is influencing staff conduct. And perhaps lower than “staff conduct,” it’s affecting “decision-maker conduct.” You may’t play when you don’t have a seat on the desk, and I do suppose extra continuously the self-interest of executives is trumping groups’ finest pursuits. In case you have one or two years to save lots of your job, why take a highschool participant who gained’t be prepared for one more 5? I don’t suppose each staff or govt is behaving this fashion (Pittsburgh wants good huge league hitters ASAP, but they took Konnor Griffin and a number of other different excessive schoolers regardless of the chance/time ingredient as a result of they imagine within the expertise), however the quantity is rising.
Groupthink on the Rise
One other widespread response from business personnel this 12 months was one thing like, “We’re all making selections trying on the identical information and, more and more, based mostly on comparable interpretations of that information.” This intersects with the faculty contact hitter level above. Groups are fastball vertical strategy angle and hitters’ contact and chase charges, and so they have regression fashions which are fed the identical information as their opponents’ fashions, partly as a result of MLB (and its cheaper homeowners) needed to keep away from an arms race on this house. Individuals in profitable organizations diffuse to unhealthy ones when the unhealthy ones make a brand new GM or POBO rent, and the methodology of the profitable orgs spreads to the crummier groups. That is taking place sooner than particular person groups could make a leap in scouting or dev, and we’re approaching a kind of equilibrium the place the aggressive benefits shall be mined from the interpersonal nooks and crannies of this course of and the technique with which groups decide. I believe you might argue that orgs which are much less inclined to stick to data-based strategies are in a greater place now than ever earlier than as a result of the various data-driven groups find yourself competing for a similar gamers. If there’s a science- or analytics-driven hole between groups, it’s in the way in which participant growth is taken into account as they decide their draft targets.
