Would you commerce me your sandwich for my bag of chips? What if I threw in a pudding cup? Ought to we swap backpacks? Baseball playing cards? The will to work out exchanges – and to do the comparative evaluation essential to determine whether or not you’d make a commerce – is common. It’s solely pure that sports activities intensify that feeling: At their core, sports activities are principally about deciding which of two issues is best.
Welcome to the 2024 version of our annual Commerce Worth sequence. Beginning at this time and persevering with all week, we’re releasing our listing of the 50 most beneficial gamers in baseball, taking participant efficiency, age, and contract into consideration. Dave Cameron, Kiley McDaniel, Craig Edwards, and Kevin Goldstein have all headlined this column earlier than; that is my third 12 months doing it alone.
I say “alone,” however that solely describes the primary half of the method. To begin, I gathered each attainable enter I might consider: age, contract standing, measures of present manufacturing, estimates of future manufacturing, Statcast information, pitch-level modeling — the listing goes on. I used all of these inputs to give you an preliminary quantitatively outlined rating, then honed that rating by diving into particular person participant comparisons in larger element. With that performed, I received suggestions from the FanGraphs employees (particular because of Dan Szymborski for his ZiPS help and to Meg Rowley for being a frequent sounding board) to refine my pondering additional.
Subsequent, I reached out to sources on the group facet. I solid a wider internet than common this 12 months, attempting to get totally different views on participant worth from organizations which have totally different methodological leanings, and occupy totally different locations on the win curve. Make no mistake, although: Regardless of all the assistance that this horde of individuals was form sufficient to supply me, these rankings are my very own.
To that finish, this listing is my subjective rating of the 50 gamers in baseball who I feel would fetch probably the most if their group traded them. It’s not a consensus listing of which gamers are valued most by the business, although there may be after all appreciable overlap with that standards. There will likely be gamers on right here who I’m increased on than consensus and vice versa. I’ll name out the most important disagreements within the particular person writeups. If I’m rating a participant increased than consensus, it definitely doesn’t imply that consensus is fallacious, although clearly I suppose it’s.
With that mentioned, I’m attempting to reply this query: Taking all the things a couple of participant into consideration, which gamers would garner the best commerce worth, from any group, if each group considered gamers the identical approach I do? It’s not the common worth that every group would assign a participant based mostly on these groups’ particular person aggressive home windows and monetary limitations; simply as with actual trades, with my listing, there’s a highest bidder, a group most motivated to accumulate somebody’s providers, and that’s what I care about. To provide you an instance from at this time’s honorable mentions, there are numerous groups that couldn’t commerce for Zack Wheeler no matter value. That doesn’t matter, although, as a result of it solely takes a handful of groups to make a market.
I feel this is a vital distinction. You’ll be able to think about taking a look at this listing from the angle of a small-market group, or a rebuilding group, or a group with an All-Star already entrenched at a given place, and scratching your head on the order. The Orioles wouldn’t commerce for Will Smith (spoiler: he’s on the principle a part of the listing). The place would he play? The A’s wouldn’t commerce for Tarik Skubal (spoiler: he’s ranked too). He’d be gone earlier than they sniff rivalry even when they went out and added him tomorrow.
A listing of the mixture desire, averaged throughout all 30 groups, would possibly look totally different. However that’s not how trades work in the actual world, and so it’s not how I’m evaluating gamers for this sequence. All I care about is the best provide each participant might fetch, as a result of in the long run that’s what determines their worth in commerce. So long as there’s no wage cap and star gamers are in brief provide, one of the best gamers available in the market carry a commerce premium past what you’d count on from some linear type of worth, and I’ve tried to account for that in my rankings.
A observe on this particularly: I’m not pleased with how I accounted for star gamers on giant contracts final 12 months. I went by the difficulty of explaining all of those issues, after which I simply shoved each participant who match that invoice into the honorable mentions. It was a cop out, and one I’m not repeating this 12 months. I feel that there are a handful of gamers ok to command an enormous haul in commerce regardless of their sizable contracts. Possibly there could be an change of cash concerned, however the variety of prospects going the opposite approach in such a deal would make up for it. I’ll cowl these instances after I rank these gamers.
Yet another observe on construction: I’m going to point tiers of gamers this 12 months. Is that simply one other factor to disagree with me about? Possibly, however I feel it does a greater job of explaining my pondering, and drives residence the purpose that not each one-spot hole on this listing means the identical factor. The tiers ought to be pretty self-explanatory, however simply to be secure, a reminder that the primary and final participant in a given tier are nearer to one another in worth than they’re to the closest gamers in neighboring tiers. The tiers will likely be demarcated within the desk that seems on the finish of every article within the sequence, and I’ll additionally reference them as I break down my interested by the primary and final participant in every tier.
As I point out yearly, reducing the listing off at 50 gamers was an arbitrary determination made way back, however it’s one I utterly help. There must be some cutoff — simply have a look at what number of honorable mentions there are — and 50 does an excellent job of getting all one of the best gamers on the listing with out filling it with an excessive amount of fluff on the backside. That mentioned, reducing issues off at 50 implies a bright-line distinction between 50 and 51 that doesn’t mirror actuality. The gamers from 38-60 have been all fairly shut to one another in my estimation. You can make an argument for any of these guys being on the listing, and belief me, loads of the individuals I talked to made these arguments. Many of the gamers within the honorable point out part might moderately belong on the again finish of the listing, actually.
For the gamers who appeared on final 12 months’s listing, you’ll see their 2023 rating in parentheses after their title. I’ve additionally included a separate part of gamers who made the listing final 12 months however fell off and aren’t honorable mentions this 12 months. I’m going to carry my weekly chat Friday at 10 AM ET (fairly than later this afternoon) in order that I can take your questions on the complete listing.
That’s numerous phrases concerning the course of of constructing this listing, and there will likely be loads extra within the feedback accompanying every ranked participant. For now, although, let’s get to the honorable mentions.
Departing the Listing, Not an Honorable Point out
Wander Franco (2)
Framber Valdez (22)
Alejandro Kirk (39)
Jordan Walker (43)
Cedric Mullins (44)
Lars Nootbaar (47)
Ke’Bryan Hayes (48)
Josh Jung (49)
Franco is on the restricted listing following prices of sexual abuse and exploitation of a minor and human trafficking within the Dominican Republic; he appears unlikely to play skilled baseball once more.
Valdez hasn’t been significantly better than league common for the final year-plus, and he’s additionally quickly nearing free company. If he had both extra group management or extra present juice, he’d nonetheless be on the listing, however, effectively, he doesn’t.
The remainder of the group boils all the way down to a bunch of hitters I grouped on the finish of final 12 months’s listing. First, there are the damage instances. Nootbaar has been fairly good when wholesome – 2.7 WAR in 418 plate appearances within the final calendar 12 months – however he’s collected sufficient accidents that the ground on his worth feels decrease. He was on the listing final 12 months due to that flooring, however now I’m downgrading him to a stable participant who must put collectively just a few wholesome years in a row. The identical goes for Jung. It’s onerous to worth the group management when he’s performed so occasionally.
Kirk, Mullins, and Hayes have been all on the listing due to their mix of defensive excellence and offensive competence (Kirk possibly matches that description much less completely, however defensive metrics love him). In every case, they simply haven’t hit sufficient; none of them has even common offensive manufacturing. Lastly, Walker’s recreation has simply collapsed; he was bopping within the majors final 12 months at the same time as he was held again by his protection, however he’s been 28% under common offensively in Triple-A this 12 months.
Harm Ward
Spencer Strider (10)
Shane McClanahan (11)
Sandy Alcantara (17)
Eury Pérez (18)
Matt McLain (28)
Kodai Senga
What a brutal run of accidents. The 4 pitchers headlining this group are among the many highest within the recreation and have been the highest 4 pitchers on final 12 months’s listing. They’ve all had Tommy John surgical procedure since then. Nobody would commerce for them proper now – there’s no assure they’ll return to the sector at their prior degree of ability, and it would take them a 12 months or two to regain their incandescent type even when they do get again to that degree. In the event that they return to what they have been earlier than damage, they’ll catapult again up the rankings, however that is about present commerce worth, they usually simply don’t have any till they return to the majors.
McLain is a barely totally different case, as groups are typically extra prepared to tackle threat in relation to hitters. Ronald Acuña Jr. was on this listing when he was recovering from an ACL tear in 2021, and he’s on it once more this 12 months regardless of being out for the season. McLain appears like the actual deal to me. He mixed wonderful protection and a potent energy bat final 12 months earlier than lacking the final month of the season with an indirect damage. Then he damage his shoulder in spring coaching and wanted a surgical restore, and he nonetheless hasn’t even began a rehab project. There’s simply not sufficient monitor report to help a better valuation. If he returns at roughly the identical degree as his 2023 self, he’ll simply command a spot on subsequent 12 months’s listing.
Senga is a tier down when it comes to worth, largely as a result of his contract affords him an opportunity at an decide out after subsequent 12 months if he totals 400 innings from 2023-25. He isn’t a lock to hit that quantity, however it’s value contemplating. Aside from that wrinkle, he’s an excellent pitcher when wholesome and may return to the majors quickly, so he definitely belongs on this group.
Luxurious Semi-Leases
Bo Bichette (20)
Zac Gallen (24)
Kyle Tucker (30)
Randy Arozarena (34)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (35)
Dylan Stop (HM)
Ranger Suárez
These seven gamers will all assist your group, and none of them will break the financial institution. The rationale they didn’t break into the highest 50 comes all the way down to how lengthy they’ll aid you for. Arozarena will attain free company after the 2026 season, the opposite six after 2025. Staff management isn’t the one think about commerce analysis – give me 1.5 years of Gallen over 5 years of a below-average pitcher on daily basis – however nobody on this listing fairly had the juice to get previous honorable point out standing.
Gallen, Stop, and Suárez are every having a stable season, however their 2024s have been extra “nice quantity two” than “world-beating ace,” and Gallen has handled a hamstring damage in addition to. Guerrero is within the midst of his finest season since 2021, however he nonetheless hasn’t come near repeating that unimaginable excessive. He appears like an above-average first baseman greater than he does an MVP-contender. Arozarena and Bichette have been fairly poor this 12 months thus far, however every has an extended sufficient monitor report of raking {that a} second-half bounce-back is probably going, although Bichette is now coping with a calf pressure that might preserve him out for just a few weeks.
That simply leaves Tucker, and his scenario is the strangest of the group. He was breaking out to the tune of a 174 wRC+ this 12 months, however he’s been sidelined because the starting of June with a shin damage and nonetheless hasn’t began a rehab project. If he had a clear invoice of well being, I feel groups would again up the truck for him, however well being issues right here, and I can’t think about providing an enormous prospect haul in change for a participant who’s gone after 2025 and whose standing for the remainder of the season remains to be in query. Greater than anybody else right here, Tucker’s worth will fluctuate fairly a bit based mostly on experiences of his well being.
Extremely-luxury Leases
Juan Soto (29)
Corbin Burnes (HM)
Soto and Burnes will each hit free company in three months, they usually each received traded this offseason because of this. They’re clearly staying put – but when they weren’t, there’d be a feeding frenzy, as a result of they’ve each lived as much as the billing. Burnes is on his technique to his fifth straight wonderful season, and on condition that he’s throwing tougher and lacking extra bats, I’m not anxious concerning the downtick in strikeout charge. Soto is doing Juan Soto issues – he’s racked up 8.3 WAR within the final calendar 12 months, and nothing about it appears unsustainable. Both of those guys might credibly be one of the best participant on a World Collection winner. It could simply should be this 12 months’s World Collection winner in the event that they have been in some way traded, as a result of there’s no extension fairness right here; it’s 2024 parade or bust.
Good Pitchers on Good Contracts
Luis Castillo (32)
Shota Imanaga
Tyler Glasnow
Sonny Grey
All 4 of those pitchers are All-Star caliber arms on cheap contracts. All of them have potential yellow flags – age for Castillo and Grey, lack of monitor report for Imanaga, and workload for Glasnow. I feel that every has meaningfully constructive commerce worth, and if I have been a contending group with restricted prospect capital, I’d love so as to add any of those choices. I simply don’t suppose you’d get fairly the juice for these 4 that you’d for a few of the pitchers within the 41-50 vary.
The Catcher Vortex
Sean Murphy (12)
Cal Raleigh
Murphy’s sudden fall appears injury-related, however I merely wouldn’t really feel comfy buying and selling rather a lot for him when his final calendar 12 months contains 280-ish PA of 76 wRC+ work. It’s an excellent reminder that catchers don’t age predictably. I feel that the worst-case trajectory for Murphy is that he turns right into a high-end backup, but when that situation is even a query, he can’t be greater than an honorable point out.
Raleigh might very moderately have been included on the principle part of the rankings; he received squeezed out on the very finish, however ask me a month in the past or six weeks sooner or later, and I’d offer you a distinct reply. He’s above common in numerous classes, however I’ve all the time been afraid of his offensive profile. He strikes out so typically that he actually must be leaving the yard to make the equation work. I’m much more assured in his protection, and he’s round for an additional three years after this.
Infielders With Upside
Ozzie Albies (31)
Jeremy Peña (37)
Oneil Cruz (42)
Spencer Steer (46)
Isaac Paredes (HM)
Andrés Giménez
Brice Turang
Albies has been a mainstay on commerce worth lists for years, and he’s nonetheless an excellent participant, an All-Star for those who catch him in an excellent season. He’s on a loopy whole lot even now – $7 million a 12 months by 2027 – however I feel he’s on the decline defensively, so he’s much less of a do-it-all man than he was at peak. I’ve him as a stable contributor as an alternative of a star at this level, and he’s going to be out for many of the remainder of the season because of a damaged wrist, additional dimming his present enchantment.
Peña, Giménez, and Turang are all plus defenders at up-the-middle positions, so that they have a pleasant worth flooring. I’m not satisfied that any of them will hit, although. Peña’s group management is ticking down, and Giménez’s contract begins to ramp up in 2025, so he’s much less of a cut price than the opposite two. Turang is one of the best of the bunch for me; he received’t hit free company till after the 2029 season and he’s enjoying at the same degree proper now.
Steer and Paredes are broadly related; they’re each good hitters who don’t transfer the needle defensively. They have been each on the tail finish of the highest 50 in earlier iterations. I feel Paredes is the higher of the 2, however I’m cognizant of the truth that his recreation is custom-built for Tampa Bay’s ballpark, which makes commerce evaluations onerous. In both case, for those who’re searching for offense in a can, these are good, younger, controllable choices.
Cruz nonetheless hasn’t put his in depth set of instruments collectively persistently, and at this level his upside might be “superb” as an alternative of “Randy Moss enjoying baseball.” I opted for a bit extra present-day manufacturing on this 12 months’s model of the listing relative to earlier years’, reflecting my altering understanding of the commerce market and the aggressive panorama, which is why I’ve him in HM land as an alternative of within the 35-45 vary.
I’m Skeptical, However I Might Be Satisfied
Reese Olson (HM)
Evan Carter
Brenton Doyle
Jarren Duran
Royce Lewis
Brent Rooker
Cristopher Sánchez
Duran, Doyle, Olson, Rooker, and Sánchez are all having fun with breakout seasons. In the event that they proceed to supply like they’ve in latest historical past, they’ll be slam dunks for subsequent 12 months’s iteration of the listing. In every case, although, I haven’t seen it for fairly lengthy sufficient to replace my priors about them. Minor yellow flags – Duran’s energy, Doyle’s plate self-discipline, Olson’s uncooked stuff and now damage, Rooker’s strikeouts, and Sánchez’s sturdiness/consistency – imply I need extra information earlier than I’m satisfied. In the event that they end 2024 enjoying at their present tempo, although, they’ll simply belong within the high 50 subsequent 12 months.
Lewis was the toughest participant within the majors for me to position; I’ve had him within the high 50 and outdoors of the highest 100. I’m placing him right here as an acknowledgement that he’s loopy proficient, however let’s be actual: It’s onerous to commerce for somebody who can’t keep on the sector. Lastly, I simply need to see extra information on Carter. He was a spectacular hitter for about 150 PA (together with the playoffs) final 12 months, a foul hitter for about 150 PA this 12 months, and is presently damage. He could possibly be a mainstay in future lists, or extra of an above-average common if 2024 is nearer to his true expertise than 2023.
Mason Miller
Mason Miller (HM)
There’s just one individual on this class, naturally sufficient. Miller’s worth is capped by his damage historical past and his function; peak Edwin Díaz fetched a ton in commerce, however I’m unsure the identical could be true at this time. This a lot group management for a pitcher this transcendent is uncommon, and groups will undoubtedly provide Oakland a invaluable array of prospects for Miller on the deadline, however I don’t suppose he belongs increased than an honorable point out if he can’t begin, and I doubt a group that trades for him will take that threat given how a lot time he missed with damage the final time he was within the rotation.
Byron Buxton
Byron Buxton (HM)
Two one-player classes? I couldn’t discover anybody to group with Buxton, who’s enjoying on an incentive-laden contract and in addition didn’t take the sector for a single recreation in 2023. He appears elite in heart discipline this 12 months, and he’s completely raking, however I’m afraid sufficient of his damage historical past that I don’t suppose he belongs on the principle a part of the listing. This might make me look fairly foolish in a 12 months, as a result of when Buxton is on, he’s on, however there’s an excessive amount of threat in my eyes.
You Can By no means Have Sufficient Pitching
Hunter Brown (40)
Joe Ryan (45)
Taj Bradley (HM)
Bryce Miller (HM)
Freddy Peralta (HM)
Bryan Woo (HM)
Garrett Crochet
Tanner Houck
I’ll degree with you: these eight match snugly right into a tier with six pitchers on the tail finish of the highest 50. There’s not a ton to distinguish them; it’s all a tradeoff between uncooked stuff, outcomes, group management, and damage historical past. Would I really feel nice plugging any of those guys in as my unquestioned ace? Definitely not. Would I need them on my group? Definitely so. I personally like Houck most out of this group, however that was certainly not true for everybody I talked to. I do know I’ve already talked about that there’s little separation on the tail finish of the highest 50, however I’m going to repeat it in particular reference to this group.
Youths
Roman Anthony
Samuel Basallo
Junior Caminero
Colton Cowser
Dylan Crews (HM)
Jackson Jobe
Xavier Isaac
Colt Keith
Heston Kjerstad
Coby Mayo
Joey Ortiz
Noah Schultz
Andrew Painter
Ceddanne Rafaela
AJ Smith-Shawver
As is customary, I requested Eric Longenhagen for a listing of prospects with large upside or who might crack the listing subsequent 12 months in the event that they proceed at their present tempo. I blended in some latest debuts who didn’t match cleanly into any of the opposite honorable point out teams, too; Keith, Cowser, and Ortiz all appear to be they belong within the majors already, however they haven’t actually kicked it into excessive gear but. It’s a slimmer prospect listing than regular; final 12 months’s primary decide is already within the majors and on the principle a part of the listing (spoiler), this 12 months’s draft appears fairly skinny on the high, and lots of of our preseason high prospects made the listing correct. I feel it’s only a cyclical problem, fairly than a long-term shift, however this crop feels fairly gentle.
I had to attract the road someplace for honorable mentions, however I’ll simply point out yet one more group of gamers who received consideration: stars on large contracts who didn’t crack the highest 50. Freddie Freeman, Wheeler, Gerrit Cole, Marcus Semien, Trea Turner, Yoshinobu Yamamoto – I feel all of them are fascinating, however only a tick or two behind the group of comparable gamers who seem within the 41-50 part of the listing. For what it’s value, no. 51 on my listing would have been Tanner Houck, with Cal Raleigh no. 52.
